Market Overview

On Monday, March 17 (U.S. time), U.S. stocks rebounded slightly across all three major indices after multiple days of decline, with the Dow Jones leading the recovery with a 0.86% gain. However, stock futures indicated a downward trend, signaling continued market uncertainty. Gold surged to a new all-time high of $3,029 per ounce, while crude oil rose to $68 per barrel.

Bitcoin remained range-bound around $83,000, with some altcoins gaining modestly while others declined. The total crypto market capitalization stands at $2.811 trillion.

Markets are now focused on Tuesday’s Executive Orders by President Trump, set to be signed at 12:30 PM California time (March 18, U.S. time). Any executive order related to tariffs or economic policy could trigger significant volatility.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. saw a net inflow of $274 million on Monday, reversing previous outflows, indicating renewed institutional interest in BTC.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged that the market is in a correction phase but did not rule out the possibility of a recession, marking a rare admission from White House officials. Typically, U.S. administrations avoid discussing recession risks to prevent panic and economic destabilization. However, the Trump administration’s openness to acknowledging recession risks has added uncertainty to financial markets.

Strategic Use of Recession Fears to Curb Inflation

One theory suggests that the Trump administration is leveraging economic uncertainty to control inflation. When consumers fear financial instability, they cut back on spending, reducing inflationary pressures. Additionally, market fear can redirect capital from riskier assets (stocks, crypto) into safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasury bonds. This naturally lowers bond yields without the Fed intervening, allowing the government to refinance debt at lower interest rates.

If a recession occurs early in Trump’s term, his administration can attribute it to prior policies and take credit for the subsequent recovery before the next election. Whether this is a calculated strategy or a natural market reaction remains to be seen.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Predictions Amid Whale Activity

The large whale short position on BTC and ETH remains open, continuing to exert pressure on the market. As of now, the whale has increased its 40x leveraged short position on BTC from $400 million to $520 million, with a new liquidation price of $85,565.

Despite multiple attempts by other market participants to trigger liquidation, the whale has survived an entire weekend and multiple trading sessions across Asian, European, and U.S. markets.

Ethereum Price Forecast Revision by Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered recently revised its 2025 Ethereum price forecast, lowering it from $10,000 to $4,000, citing competition from Base (a leading Layer 2 scaling solution). The bank estimated that Base has reduced Ethereum’s market cap by $50 billion.

However, this analysis is flawed. As a Layer 2, Base still relies on Ethereum for security, transaction execution, and gas fees. Moreover, Ethereum continues to develop scaling solutions to accommodate growth. The rise of Layer 2 ecosystems strengthens Ethereum’s network effect, rather than diminishing its long-term value.

Standard Chartered’s track record on crypto predictions is mixed. In 2023, the bank forecasted Bitcoin could fall to $5,000, but BTC only bottomed around $15,000. Whether this Ethereum forecast proves accurate remains uncertain.

Is the Growth Cycle Over?

According to CryptoQuant’s CEO, on-chain indicators signal a bear market, with liquidity drying up across major crypto assets.

Despite it being only March, comparing Bitcoin’s current trajectory with past cycles shows divergences, but no cycle is identical. Historical data suggests that one major catalyst—such as trade wars or a Fed policy shift—could drastically alter the market outlook.

Interestingly, just four weeks ago, CryptoQuant’s CEO was highly optimistic about Bitcoin’s bull cycle, but his sentiment has now shifted. The reality is only time will tell. As always, a single statement from President Trump or the Fed could shift the market in an entirely new direction.

Elon Musk Exposes the "Magic Money Machines" in the U.S. Government

Elon Musk recently claimed to have discovered at least 14 "magic money machines" within the U.S. government that can generate and distribute funds seemingly out of thin air.

These hidden financial mechanisms allegedly exist across multiple federal agencies, including the Treasury Department, Department of Defense, and Department of Health & Human Services, allowing the government to allocate funds without a clear paper trail.

This revelation raises an ironic question: Why is Bitcoin criticized as "magic internet money" when the traditional financial system itself operates on fabricated liquidity?

The nature of money has evolved throughout history:

• Ancient economies relied on bartering and commodity-based currencies like gold and shells.
• Governments then introduced fiat money, which derives value from trust rather than intrinsic worth.
• Modern financial systems now operate largely on digital ledgers controlled by central banks.

Given this evolution, Bitcoin’s decentralized monetary model is simply a continuation of financial innovation. The key difference is that Bitcoin operates transparently on a public blockchain, unlike traditional fiat systems where money creation is opaque and influenced by political agendas.

Other Key Market Developments

Upcoming SEC Chair Appointment

Paul Atkins, a former SEC Commissioner, is set to become the new Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). His confirmation process faced delays due to financial disclosure issues, but a Senate hearing is scheduled for March 27.

China’s Economic Stimulus and Deflation Battle

China continues aggressive policies to boost income and consumption, as the country grapples with deflation. The government has unleashed new stimulus measures to revive economic growth.

OECD Lowers Global Growth Forecast

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has reduced its global growth forecast, citing the impact of Trump’s trade tariffs. The OECD now projects global GDP growth will slow from 3.2% in 2024 to 3.0% in 2026, a downward revision from the previous estimate of 3.3%.

Public Perception of Bitcoin Remains Skeptical

A survey by SMERCONISH.COM with 20,839 participants found that 86% (around 17,921 respondents) would not invest in Bitcoin. This indicates persistent skepticism toward crypto adoption.

However, mass adoption often follows an S-curve, meaning early resistance could signal long-term growth potential. Historically, mainstream investors enter markets once the early adopters have already reaped significant gains.

MicroStrategy Adds More Bitcoin

Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy has purchased an additional 130 BTC, at an average price of $82,981 per Bitcoin. The company’s total Bitcoin holdings now stand at 499,226 BTC, with an average acquisition cost of $66,360 per BTC.

AI-Token Market Decline

Binance founder CZ noted that the AI-agent token sector has collapsed by 61%, falling from $70.4 billion to $27 billion. He attributed the decline to excessive token launches without real utility.

According to CZ, not all AI projects need their own token—many can simply integrate existing cryptocurrencies for transactions. He stressed that true innovation in AI should focus on building valuable applications, rather than capitalizing on speculative token sales.

South Korea Rejects Bitcoin Reserves

The Bank of Korea has denied considering Bitcoin as part of its foreign currency reserves, citing concerns over price volatility.