The market ended last Friday (October 4th) on a positive note as US stock indices rose, thanks to a better-than-expected unemployment report. Gold futures saw a slight decline but remained high at $2,673 per ounce, while oil prices increased to $74 per barrel due to market concerns over rising tensions in Israel.

Bitcoin and Crypto Market Performance

Bitcoin (BTC) also surged to around $62,000, with most altcoins following suit. The overall crypto market capitalization saw a slight increase to $2.263 trillion USD.

Meanwhile, US-based Bitcoin Spot ETFs recorded a small net inflow of $25.6 million last Friday. Similarly, Ethereum Spot ETFs also experienced a net inflow of $7.4 million USD. Both ETFs finished the last trading session of the week with favorable results, adding to the optimism in the crypto space.

Strong Job Data Boosts Market Sentiment

The US Department of Labor released a non-farm payroll report, showing that the US economy added 254,000 jobs in September, a significant jump from the 159,000 revised figure in August. This exceeded the 150,000 consensus forecast from Dow Jones.

Additionally, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, further boosting market sentiment. These encouraging job figures helped ease concerns about the labor market and suggest that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might slow down its pace of interest rate cuts.

The CME FedWatch Tool now indicates that most investors expect the Fed to cut rates by 0.25% at its upcoming November meeting, while a minority believes the Fed will keep rates unchanged.

Impact on Interest Rates and the Housing Market

In response to the robust jobs report, the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage jumped by 0.27% to 6.53% on Friday morning, according to Mortgage News Daily. This represents a 0.42% increase compared to mid-September, following the Fed's rate cuts.

Mortgage rates typically don’t follow the Fed's benchmark directly, but they do react to movements in the 10-year US Treasury yield, which also spiked after the job report. As a result, rates initially fell before rebounding after the release of the job data.

Bitcoin Price Trends: October 2023 vs. October 2024

Looking back, Bitcoin dropped by 7% in the first week of October 2023 before experiencing a sharp recovery. Interestingly, in October 2024, BTC similarly dropped by 6.5% in the first four days.

Many are speculating if we will see another "Uptober" this year, a nickname given to October 2023 when BTC surged by the end of the month. With Bitcoin following a four-year halving cycle, analysts expect a significant BTC price increase in November 2024, which could potentially lead to new all-time highs in 2025, based on historical data.

The Importance of the Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle

Bitcoin’s historical four-year halving cycle is a widely discussed topic among investors. Each cycle has triggered skepticism, with some doubting its relevance, as was the case in 2020. Many believed that COVID-19 and economic downturns would prevent a new BTC cycle, yet Bitcoin soared to $69,000 USD, defying the doubters.

As of now, some investors still question whether Bitcoin will follow the same pattern, with concerns over global inflation and market instability. However, there are no clear signs suggesting a deviation from its previous cycles, leading many to anticipate continued long-term growth.

Widespread Adoption and BlackRock’s Role

Bitcoin adoption continues to grow, with large financial players recognizing BTC’s potential. BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, recently highlighted the decline in USD purchasing power since 1913, positioning Bitcoin as a viable inflation hedge. This argument, once dismissed as radical by traditional finance, is now being presented to institutional investors by some of the largest firms.

Compared to fiat currencies and other asset classes, Bitcoin offers several distinct advantages. However, two perceived drawbacks remain—its short history and price volatility. These traits are common for new assets with limited historical data and relatively small market capitalization.

Global Market Insights

• El Salvador, the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, has seen its GDP grow over 10% since the decision, outperforming neighboring countries. Tourism has surged by 95% in 2023 alone, and the country has paid off all its debts on time. However, the IMF continues to exert pressure on El Salvador due to its bold move in adopting Bitcoin.
• In Sub-Saharan Africa, a shortage of USD and rising inflation has increased the use of stablecoins, which now account for 43% of crypto transactions in the region, compared to Bitcoin's 18.1% share. Stablecoins have become a safe store of value and a reliable means for international payments, especially in nations with unstable currencies and limited USD access.
• Coinbase is set to delist USDT in the European Union due to Tether's non-compliance with the MiCA regulations. This will only affect European markets and won’t impact other regions.
• CleanSpark, a Bitcoin mining company, reported a 187% increase in hashrate over the past year. Their hashrate jumped from 9.6 EH/s in September 2023 to 27.6 EH/s in September 2024, with 5 EH/s added in the past month alone.
• Binance's market share has dropped to its lowest level since 2020, falling to 36.6%, a 20% decline from last month. Meanwhile, competitors like Crypto.com saw a 40% increase in trading volume, now accounting for 10.5% of the market, making it the fourth-largest crypto exchange.

Conclusion: Market Reactions and Bitcoin’s Potential Growth

The crypto market’s performance in October 2024 is closely mirroring October 2023, with a slight decline followed by a potential rally. While US stock markets and crypto ETFs continue to react to economic indicators, Bitcoin's growth story remains compelling. The anticipation surrounding Bitcoin's halving cycle and its adoption by global financial giants like BlackRock will shape its long-term trajectory.

For now, investors await further clarity on Fed policy and macro-economic data as they weigh their options in this evolving market landscape.

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