A Crucial Week: U.S. Election & Fed Rate Decision

This week will be pivotal for global financial markets, with two significant events on the horizon: the U.S. Presidential Election on Tuesday and the Federal Reserve's crucial interest rate decision on Friday. Let's explore how these events could shape market trends, including Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Current Market Snapshot

• U.S. Stock Futures: On Sunday (Nov 3rd), U.S. stock futures closed slightly lower across the board, signaling a cautious start to the week.
• Oil Prices: Despite OPEC+ announcing production cuts, oil futures are holding around $70 per barrel, a range they've been trading in for several weeks.
• Gold Prices: Gold remains steady at $2,747 per ounce, reflecting a market in wait-and-see mode.

• Crypto Market: Bitcoin is trading around $68,900, while several altcoins have shown minor gains or losses. The overall crypto market cap stands at $2.401 trillion.

• Bitcoin Profitability: The percentage of BTC wallets in profit is 93.97%, having just exited the danger zone.

Key Events This Week

1. U.S. Presidential Election: Scheduled for Tuesday, with results expected to start coming in shortly after voting concludes.
2. Federal Reserve Meeting: On Friday, the Fed will announce its latest interest rate decision.
3. Bank of England Rate Decision: The Bank of England is also set to make its interest rate announcement this week.

U.S. Presidential Election 2024: Impact on Markets

The U.S. presidential election is one of the most anticipated events of the year, and polling data has been incredibly volatile. The race between candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris has tightened significantly. As of two days before the election, Kamala Harris has managed to close the gap to just 5.6% behind Trump on Polymarket. Just a week ago, Trump had a 20% lead, highlighting the race's unpredictability.

Market Reaction & Investor Sentiment

Polls and betting odds have been fluctuating, but they do not dictate the outcome. Only the official vote count will determine the next U.S. president. Nevertheless, markets have already started to react in anticipation.

Bitcoin's price movements suggest that a Trump victory is partially priced in. Over the weekend, we've seen some risk-off behavior as investors brace for potential volatility. Both outcomes could impact the crypto market, but in different ways.

• Donald Trump: Known for his pro-crypto stance, a Trump win could provide short-term bullish momentum for the crypto market, particularly altcoins, as regulatory clarity may improve.
• Kamala Harris: With no clear stance on crypto, a Harris win could lead to market uncertainty, though the long-term trajectory for Bitcoin and crypto remains positive.

Regardless of who wins, Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals remain strong. For over 15 years, BTC has weathered various administrations, and its value proposition as a hedge against inflation and a store of value persists.

Why Does the Election Matter?

1. Policy Impact: Crypto markets are sensitive to U.S. regulatory policies. A Trump win could accelerate the adoption of pro-crypto regulations, benefiting the industry.
2. Market Sentiment: Markets generally prefer certainty. If Harris wins, crypto investors may wait to see her administration's stance before making significant moves.

Plan C, a well-known crypto analyst, conducted a survey asking whether people believe BTC is still following its four-year cycle. The majority agreed that Bitcoin continues to adhere to this pattern, which is a positive signal for market sentiment.

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

On Friday, the Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rates. Investors are watching closely, as the Fed's monetary policy could significantly impact financial markets, including crypto.

Latest U.S. Economic Data

• Unemployment Report: The U.S. unemployment rate for October came in at 4.1%, in line with forecasts. However, non-farm payrolls increased by only 12,000, a steep decline from September's numbers and far below the Dow Jones estimate of 100,000.
• Factors Influencing Employment: The labor market may have been affected by recent hurricanes and strikes at Boeing, making it harder to assess the true strength of job creation.

CME FedWatch data indicates that most investors expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 0.25% at its next meeting. The Fed's decision will be influenced by these mixed economic signals and could lead to further market volatility.

Turkish Crypto Market Insights: A Mirror for Global Trends

A recent survey conducted by Paribu, a leading Turkish crypto exchange, offers fascinating insights into crypto adoption in Turkey. Despite being focused on the Turkish market, the findings resonate with global trends.

Key Takeaways from the Paribu Survey

1. Widespread Awareness: 99% of participants have heard of crypto, indicating near-universal awareness.
2. Short vs. Long-Term Trading: 75% engage in short-term trading, while half also invest for the long term.
3. Crypto’s Appeal: Fast transactions and easy storage are top benefits, but volatility and lack of customer support are major drawbacks.
4. Top Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin leads, followed by Ethereum.
5. Investment vs. Trading: 50% use Bitcoin for investment, while 92% trade ETH short-term.
6. Mobile Trading: 86% prefer using mobile apps for crypto transactions.
7. Investment Motivation: Half of all crypto investors are motivated by long-term gains rather than short-term speculation.
8. Information Sources: 63% rely on social media for crypto news.
9. Trust Levels: 70% of active traders and 40% of non-traders consider crypto a reliable investment.
10. Investment Preferences: 30% prefer crypto over real estate, while 50% still prefer gold.

Why This Matters

Turkey, grappling with 52% inflation (down from 85% in 2022), has seen a shift in investment priorities. More Turks are turning to crypto over traditional assets like real estate, even though gold and foreign currencies remain top choices. This trend highlights Bitcoin's role as a hedge against economic instability.

Other Key Updates

1. Gemini Survey in the U.S.: Reveals that 1 in 5 Americans owns crypto. This statistic may vary based on demographics and social circles.
2. Tether's Q3 2024 Financials: Tether posted a $2.4 billion net profit, largely from U.S. Treasury bonds and gold investments. With $102.5 billion in U.S. Treasuries, Tether is now the 18th largest holder globally.
3. CZ's Post-Binance Plans: After serving a four-month sentence in the U.S., former Binance CEO CZ has no plans to return to Binance. Instead, he will focus on new ventures in blockchain, AI, and biotech.
4. NFT Market Recovery: October NFT sales rose 18% to $356 million, marking the end of a 7-month decline. Solana NFTs alone generated $67 million in sales.
5. Argentina’s Central Bank: Unveiled a unique exhibit featuring Bitcoin mining equipment, a global first for a central bank.
6. FTX Legal Updates: Nishad Singh avoided prison but was fined $11 billion, while Caroline Ellison received a two-year sentence and must forfeit the same amount.