Market Overview

The start of the week saw U.S. equities opening deep in the red as Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all posted significant declines on Monday, April 21. Futures indicated marginal recoveries, while safe-haven assets like gold surged to $3,436/oz. Oil stabilized around $63.5 per barrel. In contrast, Bitcoin outperformed traditional assets by breaking past the $88,400 level, driving total crypto market capitalization to $2.86 trillion.

The crypto rally was supported by a $381 million net inflow into U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, marking a strong return of institutional demand. Conversely, Ethereum ETFs saw a $25.4 million outflow, suggesting investors continue rotating capital into BTC, particularly amid tariff-driven macro uncertainty.

Tom Lee, Managing Partner at Fundstrat, noted the increasing divergence between Bitcoin and traditional risk assets like equities. He emphasized that Bitcoin is likely to follow gold's upward trajectory once institutional deleveraging concludes.

Trump Pressures the Fed as DXY Falls

President Trump renewed his aggressive stance against the Federal Reserve, calling for an immediate rate cut. He argued that falling energy and food prices had neutralized inflation risks and accused Fed Chair Jerome Powell of being "Mr. Too Late." Trump also reignited claims that Powell manipulated rates in 2020 to support Joe Biden’s election bid.

While Trump’s accusations are politically charged, the Fed has maintained a cautious stance. Chair Powell has consistently stated that policy shifts will only occur if inflation declines are sustained. With CPI trending lower for two consecutive months but still insufficient to establish a trend, the market expects the first rate cut to come in June—once four consecutive CPI data points are in.

Fed officials remain split. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee acknowledged the inflationary risks posed by tariffs but pointed out that imports only comprise 11% of GDP. He called for more time to assess whether the current trade conflict would disrupt supply chains or provoke global retaliation. He still sees rate cuts on the horizon within the next 12–18 months.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) continues to weaken, hitting levels last seen during the QE1 era. A continued drop in the DXY may indicate mounting expectations for Fed easing. Bond yields, however, are climbing, suggesting that long-term debt is being offloaded as fears of increasing government borrowing take hold. This divergence benefits both gold and Bitcoin, which are now seen as preferred hedges against fiat devaluation.

Central Banks Quietly Pump Liquidity

In response to trade uncertainty, global central banks are subtly loosening monetary policy. China's monetary supply (M2) has spiked—likely due to economic stimulus programs—while Europe's M2 is also on the rise. The U.S. remains relatively stable at all-time highs, reflecting that the Fed has not yet formally intervened. If QT (Quantitative Tightening) ends in tandem with rate cuts, it could set the stage for a major asset rally across Bitcoin and gold.

U.S.-China Trade Talks Continue Without Breakthrough

Although tariff updates remain limited, there has been increased diplomatic activity. China dispatched a new negotiation team to Washington, led by Ambassador Xie Feng. In a symbolic speech, Xie invoked traditional Chinese philosophy, urging peaceful coexistence and mutual prosperity. He warned that escalating tariffs could echo the economic devastation of the 1930s Great Depression.

Xie also stated that China would not tolerate any U.S. trade deal that compromises Chinese interests. The Ministry of Commerce echoed this sentiment, warning other countries not to align too closely with the U.S. trade agenda. China accused such alignment as “skinning a tiger”—dangerous and unsustainable—and threatened retaliation.

India swiftly responded by announcing a 12% tariff on imported steel, countering cheap Chinese exports flooding its domestic market.

Korea and Japan Navigate Carefully

Acting South Korean President Han Duck-soo confirmed that South Korea would not retaliate against U.S. tariffs and expressed hope for a bilateral agreement. He highlighted America’s foundational role in Korea’s post-war development and emphasized long-standing economic cooperation.

Japan is in negotiations to loosen auto import restrictions as a goodwill gesture. Yet Prime Minister Ishiba warned that Japan cannot continue to concede indefinitely, emphasizing the need to protect national interests during trade talks.

Markets are hoping for a breakthrough deal between the U.S. and China, as it could set a precedent for other nations. However, no formal agreement has been reached thus far.

Bitcoin and Institutional Buying Surge

MicroStrategy’s strategy fund added 6,556 BTC worth $555 million at an average price of $84,700, bringing its total holdings to 538,200 BTC—valued at over $36.47 billion. Japanese firm Metaplanet also expanded its position, now holding 4,855 BTC. Fashion brand ANAP Holdings entered the space with a 2 billion yen purchase (16.66 BTC), citing Bitcoin’s robust blockchain, halving cycles, and capped supply.

Crypto adoption continues to deepen at both institutional and sovereign levels, with investors increasingly viewing BTC as the digital version of gold—especially in the face of rising macro and geopolitical risks.

Other Notable Developments

Kraken will list BNB on April 22, marking a significant milestone as BNB’s availability on U.S. exchanges remains limited. Global supermarket chain SPAR is piloting Lightning Network Bitcoin payments in Switzerland, signaling broader retail integration.

In regulatory news, Oregon’s Attorney General plans to sue Coinbase, alleging unregistered securities activity via staking. Although localized to Oregon, this move could reignite national debate. Meanwhile, Slovenia will tax crypto gains at 25% starting in 2026, only when converting to fiat.

Russia is moving to issue its own state-backed stablecoin after Tether froze $27 million tied to sanctioned entities. The aim is to avoid SWIFT-related freezing and support global trade resilience.

Lastly, Trump Media has asked the SEC to investigate alleged stock manipulation involving DJT shares after suspicious short activity surfaced following Trump’s bullish Truth Social post.

Disclaimer

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Please consult with a professional before making any investment decisions.

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